From Cyber-THIS to Cyber-THAT

What 1998 and Beyond Hold in Store in Terms of New Information Technology, Business and Economy for Hispanics

There is an old adage in the communications field that cautions us not to believe all that we see, trust only half of what we read, and certainly almost none of what we hear! Perhaps it is a useful bit of multisensory advice all of us need to heed as we attempt to forecast what's in store with the on-going evolution of cyberspace technology as personified in the information superhighway, the Internet, the World Wide Web (WWW), digital and interactive multimedia for the very immediate future, beginning in 1998 and well beyond the "ringing in" of the next century by Father Time. Generally speaking, what types of change do futurists believe we can expect from the continued and fast-paced growth of the information technology field from a business perspective first and second, from the vantage point of the U. S. Hispanic community?

What do the futurists say?

Steven Miller, in Civilizing Cyberspace: Policy, Power and the Information Superhighway (1996), speaks to this question within the context of the information poor and the technology "haves and have nots" in the emergent new field of electronic communication and commerce. This is a particularly important issue for the Hispanic community in the United States given the low levels of educational achievement and the paucity of computer access and new information technology use within our ranks. Miller sees the agenda for 1998 and beyond as one of maximizing equity and diversity of access and use within the diversed communities that need to be served by the new electronic marketplace, as both government and the private sector work to promote technological literacy and universal access to these new informa tion tools and resources in an effort to prevent some type of "information access apartheid " . He encourages the public and private sectors to be cognizant of the fact that as more of our life, work and learning relationships as a society are mediated by electronic and digital media, we will need to maximize the opportunity to make them a more meaningful and satisfying part of our lives. Miller reminds us that there has been so much "hype" about the information technology revolution that it increasingly will be difficult to understand exactly what is at stake in terms of the soci ety we wish to sustain and the new values and people we want it to incorporate. Thus, he sees the changes being wrought by technology in the years to come as being less revolutionary and more evolutionary, while at the same time being much more sensitive to the changing population demography of the country. We will begin to characterize technological change, be it in the workplace, at school, or in the home, by incremental differences that will evolve from what we have been doing to what technology will allow us to do and thereafter, to what the society considers to be a priority to do.

Both Nicholas Negroponte in Being Digital , and his university colleague Michael Dertouzos, Director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science , in What Will Be: How The New World of Information Will Change Our LIves, speak to the new cyberspace consumer dynamics of "push-pull" technology where people like you and me will easily tap the new digital power of computer software to transform information into the tailor-made knowledge needed to retain a competitive advantage in all aspects of our lives. As Negroponte (1995) so rightly points out:

"Computing is not about computers any more. It is about living. We hav e seen computers move out of giant air-conditioned rooms into closets, then onto desktops, and now into our laps and pockets. But this is not the end. Early in the next millennium your right and left cuff links or earrings may communicate with each other by low-orbiting satellites and wireless technology that will have more computer power than your present PC. Your telephone won't ring indiscriminately; it will receive, sort, and perhaps respond to your incoming calls like a well-trained English butler" (pp.8-10).

Along with the predictions of computers becoming more powerful, plentiful, cheaper and smaller in size, coupled with a spectacular growth in Internet, WWW and multimedia design "s tartup" companies and the growing competition across telephone and cable te levision companies to exploit the new digital technology frontier across th e home, schooling and work settings, Dertouzos (1997), who draws on indust rial and governmental leaders who are shaping the Information Age and the new world of electronic gadgetry, answers those questions most frequently asked by people not versed in computer technology. Dertouzos, in addressing the new technological reality, details numerou s ways in which the new information media will be unfolding and recasting our lives. He makes predictions about the reuniting of the "T" in technology and the "H" in humanity as the new generation of hardware and software become more sensitive to individual behaviora l patterns and prevailing cultural norms in the use of technology acr oss different cultural groups and life activities. He underscores the need to have mankind in general gather increasing command over the technology, become more sensitive to understanding its effects on individuals and different sectors of the society, and in the process be able to better assess what is real and what is hype, haphazard, narrowly foucsed or uninformed about what is technologically possible, as viewed from both a "techie" and a humanistic point of view. Among Dertouzos' important sectors for the new technology are: providing health care and lifelong teaching and learning involving the use of distance education technologies; connecting the elderly and disenfranchized to society; conducting the business of commerce and government; preserving ethnic and cultural group heritage; and in expanding the outreach of voices and diversed points of view needing to be heard. Dertouzos sees as "... natural and inevital ble that the future world of computers and networks will be just like the Athens flea market of yesteryear - - only instead of physical goods, the commodities will be information goods" (p.9).

The recent issue of U. S. News and World Report (December 1, 1997) featured a 1998 guide to "Techno Life" and ways in which our home, work place and even the clothing in our wardrobe, will soon be wired and equipped with digital capabilities that will result in unparalleled growth of on-line business and consumer transactions. And Popular Science, in its December 1997 issue, highlighted 100 of the year's greatest achievements in science and technology. They all echo a common theme of technological convergence where the information appliances of the television, telephone, audio and other video devices, as well as print and text media, will come together for a significant growth in digital media and technology that includes a giant 61-inch projection TV screen with one of the most advanced digital focusing systems in the world that makes squinting to see details obsolete and finally rolls out to the consumer the long-promised, hang-on-the-wall, TV display unit. Also highlighted are digital "filmless" cameras that facilitate fantastic shapes and imaging capabilities such as the mega-pixel point-and-shoot digital camera that snaps away at 1 million pixels per frame, a 3-D laser digitizer that enables three dimensional scanning of pictures and objects, and megamedia computers from Apple Macintosh, IBM and Toshiba. All of these outstanding achievements in technology - - a total of 100 in all - - are featured on the Popular Science Web site: www.popsci.com.

Positioning the Hispanic Community for Information Technology

Using these predictions as a harbinger of the technological future, let us jointly develop a cyberspace or virtual reality springboard to take a more focused look at what these new technologies may mean for the Hispanic community, and in particular the business and economic sectors where Hispanics have a stronghold in the United States. This includes the advent of television cable systems into the lucrative field of Internet Service Providers, filmless digital cameras, voice activated computers, satellite and cable modems, computer-assisted techniques to help business firms screen job applicants, a new type of software known as "electronic performanc support systems" (EPSS) for developing information age mental skills and training needed to perform many white collar jobs, as well as the ability to automate many job-related skills. A whole new range of human-machine inerfaces are expected to become the work tools of the future to facilitate the buying, selling and exchange of information services and resources.

Among the key predictions offered is that early in the next century, the communications industry will generate more than 50 % of its annual revenues from the Internet and other data networks, compared to the less than 20% of the revenues generated today. Existing market structures will be increasingly replaced by electronic markets and existing distribution systems for products, goods and services, and other commodities will have to be redesigned to serve the electronic interaction of buyers and sellers within the context of the networks that are evolving for electronic commerce, as well as in the entertainment, education and training sectors. Hispanics, given their large representation, proportionately, within the United States and other global markets, as well as their information needs and market consumption behavior, will be have to become key actors in this effort.

Web-based electronic commerce will continue to grow at an exponential rate, but it will be less about selling goods and products to consumers, which has attracted the media hype, and more about the zillions of day-to-day information transactions that occur between manufacturers of products and services and their distributors or corporate business customers. As such, these new information technologies will be less of a tool to make money, and more of a "money saver" in terms of just-in-time exchanges, cutting down on legwork , expanding the information sources contacted and distances covered, and reducing the level of effort required to search for strategic information essential to remaining competitive. This will be a boom to small - and mid-size businesses where the Hispanic community is heavily represented, and in the growth efforts of Hispanic businesses in the United States to develop global contacts and links with Mexico and other Latin American markets.

The Knight-Ridder News Service reports that business-to-business deals are so new to the Web that no one really knows how much commerce is being transacted electronically today. However, one of the pioneers in electronic commerce, Cisco Systems, Inc. of San José, Califoria, alone sold more than $2 billion worth of goods and services last year on the Net. Other recent studies project that businesses will buy and pay for over $200 billion of goods and services online in the year 2001. This is just eight times more than individual consumers. Chief among the electronic commerce applications will be the streamlining of interactions with customers where over 70 percent of incoming calls to most businesses are made to ask the price, availability or status of an order. A business Web-site can answer such questions and also let users place orders directly into the computer system with a minimal error rate. And what's more the transaction can be handled either in Spanish, English or another language. And in the larger corporate business world, other estimates suggest that 88 percent of the $455 billion business of multinational corporations, where Hispanic business concerns also are beginning to be positioned, comes from other corporate customers, rather than individual consumers. Thus, into the next century, it is most likely that the biggest challenges in the information technology world from hardware to software and peopleware will hinge on strategies for winning big business clients, as opposed to everyday, individual consumer users. The biggest source of income for information technology and cyberspace business, therefore, promises to be in selling software and hardware tools to companies needing to conduct business with other companies on- line.

Thus, as we as Hispanics continue to position ourselves economically and politically for the next century, we also need to position ourselves "electronically". Many futurists are predicting that new electronic, digital and computer-based technologies will double in sales volume by the end of 1998 and continue to grow yearly about 50 percent thereafter. That means more people having access to and using these new technologies as part of their daily routines. Susan Vega García (savega@iastate.edu) at the Iowa State University Library represents part of the changing mindset that needs to occur within our U. S. Hispanic community with the creation of a compilation of recommended U. S. Latino Web sites that are reflective of a new Hispanic reality in America. The list includes Chicano, Mexican American, Puerto Rican and Cuban American Web resources, as well as sites that pertain to Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Guatemalans residing and doing business in the United States. Evaluated for breadth, perceived authority, stability, usefulness and accuracy, the sites include bibliographic clearinghouses on a variety of content areas and topics, directories, electronic journals and newspapers, and a host of valuable contacts for networking, information exchange and expertise. We as Hispanics cannot afford to wait for the electronic dust to settle before embarking on our cyber-journey. !Via la frontera electronica! This then needs to be our slogan for 1998 and beyond as we become better connected to the cyberspace world of this and that. Or should it be, "esto" y "aquello"?