Acknowledgments
Considerable assistance was provided by other entities in the preparation of this report. The city of El Paso’s Department of Planning, Research and Development prepared demographic projections for El Paso County for the entire planning period. This information was provided in a report entitled, Midpoint Population Projections to 2050 based on “Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 1990-2030” by the Texas State Data Center. This report was prepared in March of 1997.
The Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación (IMIP) of Cd. Juárez prepared a projection of potential population growth through the year 2015. IMIP developed separate projections based on low, medium and high growth rates, and adjusted the base year population figures to account for the recently accepted special census of population conducted in 1995.
The city of Las Cruces Planning Department provided a copy of a study published in 1993 entitled, Population Report: a Summary of Population Data and Projections for Las Cruces and Doña Ana County. This study projected population through the year 2010 and documented population forecasts made by other agencies and consulting firms.
Doña Ana County provided a copy of the County population forecast through the year 2015 as contained in the Doña Ana County Comprehensive Plan, 1995 - 2015.
Introduction
In March of 1996, the Economic Development Administration (EDA) of the U. S. Department of Commerce entered into a contract with the Center for Environmental Resource Management (CERM) of the University of Texas at El Paso to undertake a project entitled An Economic Development Strategy for the Sustainable Use of Water in the Paso del Norte Region. The following report is one a series of technical reports prepared as part of the overall EDA-financed study.
The Paso del Norte Region, as the term is used in this study, encompasses a geographic area consisting of those counties in the United States and those municipios in Mexico that border a segment of the Rio Grande extending from Elephant Butte Dam to the north, to the confluence of the Rio Grande and Rio Conchos to the south, (see the map on Figure One). While separated by state and national boundaries, the communities in this region share the use of the surface flow of the Rio Grande and will become increasingly dependent on this river as ground water supplies are depleted.
The probable “life” of the aquifers in the region vary, but most forecasts anticipate that the freshwater within the Hueco Bolson, principal aquifer serving the cities of El Paso and Juárez, will be depleted during the first half of the next century. In order to project far enough into the future to anticipate a time when the region’s fresh ground water resources will be substantially depleted, the year 2050 was chosen as the “horizon” year for the study.
The future population numbers provided in this report are projections based on historical growth patterns. A forecast of future population, (as opposed to a simple projection), would take into account economic variables that provide the principal driving force of population change. This report provides only simple projection of overall population, without any attempt at a demographic breakdown nor any analysis of the economic underpinnings of population growth. Consequently, this lack of sophistication limits the reliability and usefulness of the data.
Population Growth Variables
Population growth in any given geographic area is a function of two variables: natural increase and net migration. Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Current information on births and deaths is available through the vital statistics offices in most county courthouses. This information can be used to derive fertility rates, the number of live births per female between the ages 10 and 50; and mortality rates, the deaths per 1,000 persons for each age group. Demographers typically divide a population into groups, or cohorts, based on sex, age (e.g. 5 year cohorts), and race/ethnicity. Fertility and mortality rates are then separately derived for each cohort to enable a population’s intrinsic growth rate to be calculated. While the computation process is relatively straight-forward, fertility and mortality rates change over time. Fertility rates are influenced by economic conditions and societal attitudes regarding desirable family size. Mortality rates change due to medical advances that tend to increase life-expectancy and lower infant mortality.
Natural increase is generally the most significant factor in population growth in a short-term context (e.g. five to ten year time frame); over a longer time period, net migration becomes the dominant factor influencing population change. Net migration is the difference between in-migration and out-migration relative to a given geographic area under study. Migration is influenced principally by differences in economic conditions between regions. Even a ‘zero’ net migration can influence subsequent growth by causing qualitative differences in a population. For example, if a region experiences an out-migration of youth seeking job opportunities, but an in-migration of elderly retirees, the intrinsic growth rate of the population will reduce even though net migration may balance. Migration influenced changes in a population’s racial/ethnic characteristics, or in a population’s education/skill level (and consequent earning-potential), will impact subsequent growth due to differences in average fertility rates between different racial/ethnic groups and between different socio-economic levels.
Economic Factors Influencing Migration
Many factors influence the decisions individuals make regarding where to live. Considerations may include family ties, climate, familiarity with an area and other intangible factors. Ultimately, however, the key factor that influences an individual’s choice of where to live is the availability of employment. Cities (and by extension, regions) can be thought of as economic units. The economic stability of a region requires a balance between the in-flow and out-go of currency. Logically, economic growth is only possible when the income-production within an area increases more rapidly than does the region’s financial dependence on outside sources of goods and services.
The “industries” (broadly used to include all types of economic activity) of a community can be roughly divided into base industries and non-base industries. A non-base industry provides a service within a community, but does not generate new income to the community. An example of a non-base industry is a dry cleaning establishment. By comparison, base industries generate income by producing goods or services that are exported out of the community. Base industries provide the economic wherewithal for the community to exist. As a community increases in size, the diversity of businesses in the community increases. Even though much of this growth may be in non-base industries, it can represent a basis for further population growth because increased diversity enables a community to better meet its own needs instead of having to purchase services from outside the region. While this provides the impetus for further growth, it is a second tier of the local economy; the foundation of the region’s economy still depends on the income-producing base industries.
Just as non-base industries locate within a community to optimize access to their customer base, base industries locate in regions that provide operational advantages relative to their source of raw materials or strategic advantages relative to their extra-regional customer base. Location advantages may be due to inherent characteristics of a site, such as a natural harbor or ready access to mineral or timber resources. Within the Paso del Norte region, the border itself provides a location advantage due to the positioning of international ports-of-entry that serve as conduits for international commerce, and because of business opportunities made possible by the disparities in labor costs between the two nations.
Decisions by business to locate into or relocate out of a region can have a dramatic impact on population change. Generally, industries that require considerable capital investment cannot easily relocate; such industries chose locations based on the long-term advantages of an area. For example, ASARCO, Inc. is one of the region’s base-industries. Smelting operations were begun in El Paso during the late 19th century to process ore from mines from a larger region extending south into Mexico and west to Arizona. Circumstances change over time; during the late 1970s, when ASARCO operated as a custom smelter, some of the ore that was smelted was transported via rail from the Port of Houston to where it had been shipped from mines as far distant as South America. While today the smelter’s location may be less strategic relative to sources of ore, the enormity of the capital investment represented by the smelter provides an inertia that prevents it from moving.
Businesses requiring less fixed investment can be more opportunistic and take advantage of ephemeral location criteria such as favorable tax rates, access to skilled labor, or lax labor or environmental laws. As circumstances change and the advantages are lost, such businesses can relocate. Many business that operate maquiladoras were drawn to the area to take advantage of low-cost labor; if wage rates increase, such businesses may relocate out of the area. If businesses relocate into or out of the region solely based on labor costs, the number of jobs available will likely remain less than the number of job seekers, thus acting to keep wages depressed relative to other regions. In this dynamic, population growth drives economic growth.
Population Growth in Mexico
During the latter half of the twentieth century, Mexico has undergone a dramatic growth in population, quadrupling in size in less than fifty years. Mexico’s youthful population results in a high fertility rate, and demographers expect the country’s rapid growth rate to continue well into the next century. In addition to absolute population growth, Mexico has experienced changes in the distribution of its population due to urbanization -- a term that refers to an increasing percentage of a county’s population living in urban areas. This rural-to-urban shift has been prompted by the “push” created by reduced agricultural yields from over-worked soils and the breakdown of the traditional hacienda system, and the “pull” of economic opportunities in the cities.
Along with the Mexico City environs, the recipients of a disproportionate share of the rural-to-urban migrants have been cities huddled along Mexico’s northern border. The border between the Mexico and the United States is dotted with “twin” cities linked by international ports-of-entry. Earlier in the century, the populations of pairs of twin cities were roughly comparable; the subsequent rapid growth of the Mexican border cities has been such that today they average twice the size of their U. S. counterparts. The driving force behind this rapid population change has been expanding economic opportunities along the border.
In the mid-1960s, Mexico introduced its Border Industrialization Program which spawned the maquiladora industry. Favorable legislation on the part of both Mexico and the United States allowed in-bond manufacturing using materials imported from the United States, then exported back to the Unites States with only the value-added being subject to tariffs. Low wages in Mexico, favorable tariffs at the border, and ready access to the U. S. market and transportation linkages, combined to lure many companies to establish assembly operations along the border. During its initial quarter century of existence, the maquiladora industry expanded at a phenomenal pace, averaging a twenty percent annual growth.
Nearly half of all Mexico’s maquiladoras, measured in either number of plants or numbers of employees, are located in Cd. Juárez. As of 1996, Cd. Juárez was home to over 300 maquiladoras employing nearly 200,000 workers. The maquiladora industry has lured in-migrants and thus dramatically accelerated population growth in Cd. Juárez. One negative consequence of the city’s rapid population growth has been rising crime rates and social instability as an increasing percentage of Juarenses are recent immigrants with no “roots” in the community.
The dramatic population growth in Cd. Juárez and other Mexican border cities is due to a combination of the intrinsic growth rate of the population, urbanization and expanding economic opportunities along the border. The latter two variables have caused a positive net migration. Projecting the future population of Mexican border cities based on the phenomenal growth of the border region over the last several decades may not be justified, because migration patterns may begin to change. The urbanization process in Mexico is slowing and, in the future, rural areas will be less of a source of new immigrants to the cities. A disproportionate amount of Mexico’s industrial growth has been concentrated along the border, but that too may diminish in the future. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is acting to remove many of the trade barriers that restricted the flow of goods and services between Canada, the United States and Mexico. The initial impact of NAFTA has been to spur further industrial growth along the United States / Mexico border. Ironically, over time the border region may see relatively less industrial growth as a consequence of NAFTA. No longer restricted by legislation that limited favorable tariffs to the border region, businesses may seek industrial sites in the interior of Mexico. Transportation infrastructure improvements in Mexico will hasten this trend. If more industrial growth occurs in the interior of Mexico, it will act to lessen growth pressures along the border even as trade between the United States and Mexico increases.
Ultimately, as Mexico’s economy grows stronger, foot-loose industries that relocated to the United States / Mexico border principally to take advantage of low wage rates, may relocate to other countries in the increasingly global economy.
Projecting Population
The year 2050 was selected as the “horizon” year for the EDA study. This distant time was chosen to enable economic variables to be assessed relative to ground water resources that will have been substantially depleted. Uncertainties of the region’s economy over this time period do not permit long-term economic trends to be used to forecast future population with any degree of reliability. Rather, economic trends, population growth pressures and diminishing water resources interrelate and each factor influences the others.
Many assumptions are required to forecast population. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of New Mexico cites the following uncertainties:
The sum of the collective projections yields a population total that may be unrealistically large. It is not the purpose of this projection to predict a what the population will be at a given time, so much as it is to enable the consequences of population growth to be assessed over time, particularly regarding the impact of increasing population on the region’s water resources.
El Paso County Population Projections
The city of El Paso’s Department of Planning, Research and Development prepared demographic projections for El Paso County for the entire planning period. For the period up until the year 2030, the city used the population forecasts prepared by the Texas State Data Center; for the period from 2030 to 2050, the city prepared its own projections using a similar methodology.
The Texas State Data Center is housed in the Department of Rural Sociology at Texas A&M University. The Center prepared population estimates and projections for all counties in Texas. The current projections were published in 1994; previous estimates and projections were published in 1989 and 1992. The Center uses a cohort-component technique for projecting population. This involves breaking down a population by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. By dividing a population into these sub-populations, natural increase can be calculated based on changes in the female population between the ages of 10 and 49, and based on differences in fertility and mortality between Anglos, Hispanics and Blacks. Furthermore, assumptions concerning continued trends in declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy are factored into the computations.
The Texas State Data Center uses four ‘projection scenarios’ to forecast migration rates. The Center bases its assumed migration rates on the pattern of migration experienced by Texas during the period from 1980 to 1990. The Center computes population based on four different migration scenarios: a zero net migration (0.0); one half the 1980 - 1990 migration rate (0.5); continued migration at the 1980 - 1990 rate (1.0); and a migration rate expanded beyond that of the 1980 - 1990 period (1.25). None of the scenarios provide for net out-migration. The city of El Paso Planning Department staff chose the 0.50 migration rate scenario as being most relevant to El Paso County.
The calculated data from the Texas State Data Center was reported in five-year increments; the city’s projections for the 2030 to 2050 period were reported in annual increments on a series of spreadsheets. Figure Two is a graph of the variation in the annual rate of growth. Note that the historic pattern shows considerable fluctuation in growth rates; projections necessarily show a more consistent pattern since they are based on a set of simplifying assumptions. Figure Three shows the combined Texas Data Center and El Paso Planning Department projections with the population of El Paso County expected to exceed 1,640,000 by the year 2050. This is more than two and one-half times as large as the 591,610 people reported in the 1990 census.
Population Projections for the Juárez Municipio
Population projections for Juárez municipio for the period from 1990 to 2015 were obtained from the Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación, (IMIP). IMIP prepared low, medium and high projections of population. IMIP had recently adjusted its population projections based on the results of a special, off-year census conducted in 1995 by the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). This census was made necessary due to suspected under-counting of population during the 1990 Mexican Census.
Cd. Juárez has grown dramatically since 1970 with considerable variation in its rate of growth. Much of this growth has been due to an influx of population from rural areas seeking jobs. Generally, the immigrants have been low-income. Because income levels and fertility rates tend to have an inverse relationship, and assuming this to be true of the city’s recent arrivals, fertility rates are likely to have increased thus creating further growth pressures.
Population projections for the period beyond 2015 were prepared by CERM based on continuing the same growth trends as forecast by IMIP, but using a declining growth rate. The IMIP population projections implicitly assume a continuation of in-migration pressures; by extension of the same trend lines, the CERM projections also assume continued in-migration. Population projections for the Juárez municipio appear on the Table One. This same data is graphically portrayed on Figure Four.
Doña Ana County Population Forecasts
Population forecasts were obtained from the city of Las Cruces and the Doña Ana County Planning Department. The city of Las Cruces’ report was published in 1993. This report was prepared to forecast the city’s population in the year 2010. A ‘step-down’ method was used to check the city’s estimate of future population using the historic ratio of the city’s population to that of the overall county. The report cited five different projections of Doña Ana County population. A sixth projection was obtained from the Doña Ana County Planning Department. While the different projections used varying methodologies and assumptions, and were intended for different purposes, it is instructive to note the differences in the projected population numbers, with the divergence becoming greater with time. Table Two and Figure Five show the different forecasts.
The Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of New Mexico prepares and publishes estimates of population and population projections for all counties in New Mexico. Population projections were available from the Bureau through the year 2030. The Bureau’s projections showed a diminishing rate of growth, and this same pattern was noted in the city of Las Cruces’ population report. Doña Ana County population numbers were projected from 2030 to 2050 by CERM using a continued decline in the rate of growth, diminishing to a 1.9% annual rate between 2030 and 2040, and a 1.75% annual rate between 2040 and 2050. This yielded a county population of nearly 500,000 by the year 2050.
Rural Areas Population Forecasts
Population projections through the year 2030 have been prepared for all Texas counties by the Texas State Data Center. The Centers’ methodology was described earlier in the El Paso County Population Projections section. Note that variable migration rates can be used, but none assume a net out-migration. Consequently, even the lowest population projection will indicate a growth in population due to natural increase. Due to their relatively stagnant economies, a zero net migration factor was used for Culberson and Hudspeth counties. A 1.0 migration factor was used for Jeff Davis County due to its expanding tourist potential. A 0.5 migration factor was used for Presidio County based growth potential in the southern portion of this county as a result of increased international trade through the Presidio - Ojinaga port-of-entry. CERM projected population growth from 2030 to 2050 by simply adding the same increment of growth forecast by the Texas State Data Center for the period 2020 - 2030 to each of the next two decades of growth.
The Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of New Mexico population projections were used for Sierra County. Population projections were available through the year 2030. Projections from 2030 to 2050 were made by CERM by adding the same increment of growth forecast by the Bureau for the period 2020 - 2030 to each of the next two decades of growth. Table Three and Figure Six show the population projections for the rural counties in the region.
Population growth in the three rural municipios was projected based on the trends forecast for the nearest United States counties. Consequently, population projections for the Guadalupe and Praxedis G. Guerrero municipios was based on the percentage growth projected for Hudspeth County. Population growth for the Ojinaga municipio was based on the percentage change in population projected for Presidio County. Table Four shows the population projections for the rural municipios in the region.
Paso del Norte Regional Population Projection
A single population projection was made for the region by combining the several population forecasts. The medium projected population, as prepared by the Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación and further extended by CERM, was used for the Juárez Municipio. The overall regional population projection is shown in Table Five and on Figure Seven. In the tabular information, county/municipio population projections were rounded to the nearest thousand, and overall regional population projections were rounded to the nearest ten-thousand.
The overall projected population growth represents a three and one-half times increase over the 1990 population level. This does not necessarily imply a three and one-half times increase in water consumption, since per capita water consumption is not a constant. Along with the size of the population, future water consumption will be influenced by lifestyle habits, income levels and the patterns of industrial water use.
References
Doña Ana County. Doña Ana County Comprehensive Plan 1995 - 2015. Las Cruces, 1995.
El Paso Department of Planning, Research and Development. Midpoint Population Projections to 2050 based on “Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/ethnicity for 1990-2030" by the Texas State Data Center. El Paso, 1997.
Instituto Municipal de Investigación y Planeación, Ciudad Juárez Proyección Demografica en Base al Comportamiento Historico Censal. Cd. Juárez, correspondence dated February 21, 1997.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). Censo General de Población y Vivienda, 1980 and 1990. Mexico, D. F.
Las Cruces Planning Department. Population Report: a Summary of Population Data and Projections for Las Cruces and Doña Ana County. Las Cruces, 1993.
Secretaria de Industria y Comercio, Dirección General de Estadistica. Censo General de Población y Vivienda, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Mexico, D. F.
Texas State Data Center. Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 1990 - 2030. College Station: Texas A&M University, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, Department of Rural Sociology, Internet: http://www-txsdc.tamu.edu/prjlist.html, last modified August 1, 1996.
U. S. Bureau of the Census. Census of Population and Housing, 1950 - 1990. Washington, D.C.: U. S. Government Printing Office.
University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. New Mexico Population Projections, by County. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER), Internet: http://www.unm.edu/~bber/demo/poproj.htm, last modified October 1, 1997.