UTEP Research Unit Publishes Regional Economic Forecast for Chihuahua City
Last Updated on December 08, 2020 at 2:00 PM
Originally published December 08, 2020
By UC Staff
EL PASO, Texas – The University of Texas at El Paso’s Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) has released long-run projections for demographics, labor markets, public utilities and vehicle registrations in “Borderplex Long-term Economic Trends to 2049.”
This the first long-range economic forecast published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP associate director and staff economist.
Despite the challenges currently faced in Northern Mexico due to the unexpected global COVID-19 recession, the report indicates that long-run economic prospects for the Chihuahua City metropolitan economy remain favorable.
The report indicates that the number of inhabitants in the state capital will move past 1.16 million by 2049. Formal sector employment is projected to grow even faster, surpassing 366,000 by the end of the forecast period.
Most notably, service sector employment is expected to account for the largest number of jobs in 2049 as tertiary segment activities swell in Chihuahua City. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast to reach nearly 121,000 by the end of the forecast period.
Tom Fullerton affirmed that all of the projected growth will translate into substantial increases in water system connections, vehicle registrations, and electricity connections in Chihuahua City. All of the forecasts were generated using the 255-equation Borderplex Econometric Model.