UTEP Research Unit Publishes Regional Economic Forecast for Ciudad Juárez
Last Updated on December 08, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Originally published December 08, 2020
By UC Staff
EL PASO, Texas – The University of Texas at El Paso’s Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) has released long-run projections for demographics, labor markets, public utilities and international bridge traffic in “Borderplex Long-term Economic Trends to 2049.”
This the first long-range economic report published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP associate director and staff economist.
Despite the challenges the Borderplex regional economy is currently experiencing due to the unexpected global COVID-19 recession, the report indicates long-run prospects for the Ciudad Juárez metropolitan economy remain favorable.
The report indicates that the number of inhabitants of Ciudad Juárez – already the largest city in the State of Chihuahua – will move past 1.8 million by 2049. Formal sector employment is projected to grow even faster, surpassing 624,000 by the end of the forecast period.
Manufacturing employment is expected to continue to account for the largest volume of Ciudad Juárez jobs, reaching nearly 347,000 by the end of the forecast period. Most notably, service sector employment is poised to reach nearly 157,000 jobs by the end of 2049 as tertiary sector growth accelerates.
Tom Fullerton affirmed that all of the projected growth will translate into substantial increases in water system connections, vehicle registrations, and electricity connections in Ciudad Juárez. All of the forecasts were generated using the 255-equation Borderplex Econometric Model.