UTEP Research Unit Publishes Regional Economic Forecast for Las Cruces
Last Updated on December 08, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Originally published December 08, 2020
By UC Staff
EL PASO, Texas – The University of Texas at El Paso’s Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) has completed long-run projections for demographics, labor markets, gross metropolitan product, personal income and more in “Borderplex Long-term Economic Trends to 2049.”
The report is the first long-range forecast published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP associate director and staff economist.
Despite the challenges the Borderplex regional economy is currently experiencing due to the unexpected global COVID-19 recession, the forecast points to favorable long-term prospects for the greater Las Cruces metropolitan economy.
The report indicates the number of people residing in Doña Ana County will reach nearly 298,000 by 2049. That population boost is accompanied by an increase in the number of registered businesses to more than 4,900 while college and university enrollments move past 33,300 that same year.
Payroll employment and worker earnings also are impacted by the expansion in business enterprises. The total number of jobs are forecast to eclipse the 157,000 mark by 2049. Sectors exhibiting above average job gains are construction, finance, insurance, real estate, lodging and food services, plus healthcare and social services.
Already the second largest metropolitan economy in New Mexico, greater Las Cruces personal income is projected to move beyond $37 billion in 2049. Wages and salaries are expected to surpass $15.1 billion that year. As a burgeoning retirement destination, retirement transfers are expected to reach nearly $9.2 billion by the end of the simulation period.
Tom Fullerton stated that the new forecasts provide useful data for all lenders, borrowers, and government agencies contemplating long-term projects for Las Cruces.